The Indian Express
The infiltration test
Why assurances alone can never be good enough
US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage reflected an upbeat mood after his two-hour meeting with General Musharraf on Thursday, indicating some scope for optimism over the latter's commitment to end cross-border infiltration and terrorism.
This impression appears to have been buttressed by the postponement of US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's visit to the region. This would have happened only if some progress in the ongoing confrontation was expected. The US leadership, apparently, has come to the conclusion that General Musharraf's recent commitments on ending infiltration from across the border in J&K carries greater credibility than his earlier promises.
Indians naturally will remain sceptical till there is continuing, incontrovertible evidence that such infiltration has stopped completely and, as Colin Powell described as the US goal, permanently. Washington would do well to remember President Ronald Reagan's famous words: ‘‘trust but verify''.
The short-term objective appears to be now getting centred on the issue of verification and mechanisms for monitoring the promises of stopping all infiltration by Pakistan. Armitage had said after meeting Musharraf that all sorts of monitoring mechanisms were discussed in their two-hour meeting. Pakistan's idea of an international monitoring force is an obvious non-starter.
The basic problem of Kashmir is largely due to the geopolitics of Cold War played by the dominant western powers. In any case, a solution to Kashmir is going to be far more intractable than finding an end to cross-border terrorism. Pakistan's kite flying of an international helicopter force for monitoring infiltration is laughable. These modern helicopters might keep the inspectors comfortable but they cannot undertake verification of any value.
But this still begs the question: why do we need international monitors if Pakistan is serious about implementing its promises?
India obviously will need an assured verification mechanism to monitor the success or otherwise of Pakistan's more recent promises. At the minimum, this could be helped by additional forces on the LoC. But the optimum solution lies in using technology. This is where the international community led by the US can play a constructive role in making available quickly remote sensing and other surveillance systems, including a substantive force of suitably equipped unmanned air vehicles to either side. While examining these options from the purely technical feasibility of the levels of assurances, etc, New Delhi should not ignore the political and psychological impact of any India-Pakistan joint monitoring mechanism on the jehadi/militant organisations.
Islamabad's participation in a joint monitoring mechanism would convey an unambiguous signal that the jehadis can no longer be supported by its patrons, even if Islamabad finds it difficult to formally renounce the earlier policy of waging war through terrorism. For Pakistan, even technical and operational discussions of such mechanism would be something to be claimed as a success in its search for dialogue.
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