Seize the new moment

The Hindu

Seize the new moment

THE ASSURANCE BY the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, to stop permanently the endemic terrorist incursions into India has undeniably created an opening for serious bilateral efforts towards sustainable peace. By losing no time in welcoming this initiative from Pakistan as relayed by the United States, India has certainly signalled its willingness to seize the new moment of delicate hope. Significant, too, is the assurance to the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, from the External Affairs Minister, Jaswant Singh, that New Delhi intends to "respond appropriately and positively" to Gen. Musharraf's "forward" step "in the right direction". Encouraging are the growing signs that India and Pakistan may now be able to de-escalate their tensions and avert a horrific war. Yet, a lasting breakthrough towards peace and stability on the India-Pakistan front is possible only through a spirit of conciliation and a high degree of sensitivity towards each other's emotive feelings. Viewed in this perspective, the dramatic emergence of the U.S. as the influential backstage interlocutor on matters of purely bilateral interest to India and Pakistan is indicative of an evolving reality with deep implications for the strategic autonomy of both these South Asian states. Even now, while New Delhi might wish to claim success for its own "coercive diplomacy", it appears that New Delhi and Islamabad are responding to the coercive diplomacy of the U.S.-led group of major powers which have asked their diplomats and citizens to leave India and Pakistan.

On balance, though, it will be disastrous if India and Pakistan fritter away the space that Gen. Musharraf's latest gesture seems to have made possible for an upturn in their ties. Given the parlous state of the India-Pakistan relationship at this stage, the unfolding diplomatic intervention by the U.S. has only gained momentum, almost inexorably. India's foreign policy establishment cannot, however, ignore the depth of the Pakistan President's strategic partnership with Washington in the current U.S.-led global campaign against terrorism. The goodwill that exists between the U.S. and Gen. Musharraf is the defining factor that underpins the credibility of his full-fledged commitment to eliminate cross-border terrorism of the kind that has played havoc in India in recent years. In a larger perspective, the outcome of the visit to Islamabad and New Delhi at this time by the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, has helped sustain the incipient signs of a thaw beneath the surface of what has so far been a glacially slow movement towards an India-Pakistan rapprochement. Not fully explained are the circumstances shrouding India's loss of an unmanned `spy plane' in Pakistan's airspace at this time. New Delhi will do well to refrain from actions that may be seen as provocative and may dismay the international community.

With Mr. Armitage having demonstrated the efficacy of America's diplomatic leverage with Pakistan at this juncture, India will inevitably face the daunting task of retaining its emphasis on dealing with Pakistan on a purely bilateral basis. Mr. Armitage has discussed with the Indian leaders various "possibilities and modalities" to monitor the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir in the wake of Gen. Musharraf's plenary pledge to end terrorist infiltration into India on a verifiable basis. There are no signs of Pakistan being convinced that a joint-patrolling of the LoC by the forces belonging to the two countries can be a problem-solving mechanism and also a confidence-building measure. To make joint patrolling attractive to Pakistan, India may also have to recognise the urgency of an agreed military de-escalation along either side of their border. India's objectives in this regard should be twofold: a credible and fair election in Jammu and Kashmir and the settlement of the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan solely in a bilateral framework.

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